{"id":833,"date":"2021-08-08T16:41:01","date_gmt":"2021-08-08T16:41:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.regeplus.be\/data-sets\/bias-corrected-climate-projections\/"},"modified":"2022-01-13T14:32:51","modified_gmt":"2022-01-13T14:32:51","slug":"bias-corrected-climate-projections","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.regeplus.be\/fr\/data-sets\/bias-corrected-climate-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"Correction des biais des projections climatiques"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=\u00a0\u00bb50px\u00a0\u00bb][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row el_class=\u00a0\u00bbpt-2&Prime;][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=\u00a0\u00bbProjections climatiques corrig\u00e9es pour les biais\u00a0\u00bb use_theme_fonts=\u00a0\u00bbyes\u00a0\u00bb el_class=\u00a0\u00bbmb-0&Prime;][vc_separator color=\u00a0\u00bbcustom\u00a0\u00bb el_class=\u00a0\u00bbpt-1&Prime; accent_color=\u00a0\u00bb#689d46&Prime;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb1\/2&Prime;][vc_column_text el_class=\u00a0\u00bbmb-0&Prime;]La correction de biais est devenue une pratique courante pour am\u00e9liorer les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques num\u00e9riques. Toutefois, les proc\u00e9d\u00e9s de correction de biais d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les relations entre l&rsquo;espace, le temps et les diff\u00e9rentes variables, conduisant ainsi \u00e0 des situations atmosph\u00e9riques physiquement irr\u00e9alistes. Des \u00e9tapes suppl\u00e9mentaires compliqu\u00e9es bas\u00e9es sur les m\u00e9thodes de copule sont donc n\u00e9cessaires pour corriger ces incoh\u00e9rences. Une m\u00e9thode de post-traitement simple membre \u00e0 membre (MBM) ne n\u00e9cessitant aucune \u00e9tape suppl\u00e9mentaire de pr\u00e9servation des corr\u00e9lations a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e. Dans ce projet, cette m\u00e9thode de post-traitement MBM sera ajust\u00e9e pour servir de m\u00e9thode de correction de biais dans le contexte des projections climatiques.<\/p>\n<p>Afin de prendre en compte l&rsquo;incertitude, trois sc\u00e9narios d&rsquo;\u00e9mission de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre propos\u00e9s par le GIEC (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 et RCP8.5) seront s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9s et, pour chacun d&rsquo;eux, un sous-ensemble des projections disponibles dans le cadre du projet CORDEX sera consid\u00e9r\u00e9. Une fois corrig\u00e9es, ces projections climatiques seront utilis\u00e9es pour simuler la dynamique foresti\u00e8re avec HETEROFOR.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb1\/2&Prime;][vc_column_text el_class=\u00a0\u00bbmb-0&Prime;]La m\u00e9thode de correction propos\u00e9e sera compar\u00e9e \u00e0 la m\u00e9thode de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence appel\u00e9e &lsquo;quantile mapping&rsquo; (QM).<\/p>\n<p>Les projections climatiques corrig\u00e9es seront fournies au pas de temps horaire pour six variables (vitesse et direction du vent, rayonnement, temp\u00e9rature, pr\u00e9cipitations et humidit\u00e9 sp\u00e9cifique).<\/p>\n<p>Par ailleurs, il a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9montr\u00e9 que les mod\u00e8les climatiques globaux ne peuvent pas reproduire de mani\u00e8re fiable certains aspects des tendances du changement climatique au cours des d\u00e9cennies pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Par cons\u00e9quent, les m\u00e9thodes MBM et QM susmentionn\u00e9es seront ajust\u00e9es et appliqu\u00e9es dans le but d&rsquo;accro\u00eetre la fiabilit\u00e9 des tendances climatiques des projections existantes issues des ensembles Cordex et Cordex.be.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=\u00a0\u00bb50px\u00a0\u00bb][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=\u00a0\u00bb50px\u00a0\u00bb][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row el_class=\u00a0\u00bbpt-2&Prime;][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=\u00a0\u00bbProjections climatiques corrig\u00e9es pour les biais\u00a0\u00bb use_theme_fonts=\u00a0\u00bbyes\u00a0\u00bb el_class=\u00a0\u00bbmb-0&Prime;][vc_separator color=\u00a0\u00bbcustom\u00a0\u00bb el_class=\u00a0\u00bbpt-1&Prime; accent_color=\u00a0\u00bb#689d46&Prime;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb1\/2&Prime;][vc_column_text el_class=\u00a0\u00bbmb-0&Prime;]La correction de biais est devenue une pratique courante pour am\u00e9liorer les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques num\u00e9riques. Toutefois, les proc\u00e9d\u00e9s de correction de biais d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les relations entre l&rsquo;espace, le temps et les diff\u00e9rentes variables, conduisant ainsi \u00e0 des situations atmosph\u00e9riques [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":494,"parent":829,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-833","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Correction des biais des projections climatiques | REGE+<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.regeplus.be\/fr\/data-sets\/bias-corrected-climate-projections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Correction des biais des projections climatiques | REGE+\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=\u00a0\u00bb50px\u00a0\u00bb][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row el_class=\u00a0\u00bbpt-2&Prime;][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=\u00a0\u00bbProjections climatiques corrig\u00e9es pour les biais\u00a0\u00bb use_theme_fonts=\u00a0\u00bbyes\u00a0\u00bb el_class=\u00a0\u00bbmb-0&Prime;][vc_separator color=\u00a0\u00bbcustom\u00a0\u00bb el_class=\u00a0\u00bbpt-1&Prime; accent_color=\u00a0\u00bb#689d46&Prime;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb1\/2&Prime;][vc_column_text el_class=\u00a0\u00bbmb-0&Prime;]La correction de biais est devenue une pratique courante pour am\u00e9liorer les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques num\u00e9riques. Toutefois, les proc\u00e9d\u00e9s de correction de biais d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les relations entre l&rsquo;espace, le temps et les diff\u00e9rentes variables, conduisant ainsi \u00e0 des situations atmosph\u00e9riques [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.regeplus.be\/fr\/data-sets\/bias-corrected-climate-projections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"REGE+\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-01-13T14:32:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.regeplus.be\/files\/uploads\/2021\/09\/bias-corrected.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"459\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"439\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" 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